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Re: The future of VN's

Posted: Fri Mar 23, 2012 6:24 am
by micechasekittens
Beoran wrote:All this is nothing compared to the future development that will be almost inevitatble: the android. Look at http://www.projectaiko.com/ for a primitive example. Of course, the future android will be much more complex, built from a mixture of silicon technologies, nanotechnology and and biotechnology.

To us this may seem unthinkable, but in a (not too?) distant the future, the androids will do all strenuous work at home, on the fields, and in the factories. They will even raise our children and be our first sexual partners in life. And they will protect and serve us and do all they can to make us happy, because that is how we will program them to be. And we will happier for it. We will spend our time creating and enjoying the arts and investigating science. Crime will be quite rare, since the androids will protect humans from harm.

Our main problem will be chasing down maverick androids who went berserk due to a computer virus or malfunctioning brain circuits, but there again the other androids will help us. Of course, the first few hundreds of years there will be problems due to incorrect programming too, but as technology marches on, these cases will be dealt with and occur less and less frequently. The only real danger would be androids that were built explicitly for military goals, those will have to be outlawed universally, lest we risk a "Terminator" scenario.

Of course, there will be psychological problems for humans too. Looking for another human to love and having children with them will become more and more rare, so human population will dwindle. Of course, the female androids will have artificial wombs and artificial milk glands to counteract this. Many people will spend their time playing with their androids, not looking for human friends anymore. But all in all, most people will be happy to live peaceful lives without having to work. I intend to explore the consequences of all this in a sci-fi RPG that I'm very very slowly developing.
Like most products it will first have military use followed by entertainment usage. I see corporations selling them for quite a lot. Being a cynic i am, the androids would mainly serve lust purposes and grunt work. Even if they take over most jobs, it won't be a utopia as the disenfranchised would suffer harsh conditions to compete in a job market with robots. Riots that would be harshly shut down by the police would become common as unemployment skyrocketed. If they come sentient along the line they will be viewed as below second class citizens. They will be claimed as property and their future would rest on a court hearing, ala Data in Star Trek Next Gen where Picard has to make the case for Data's humanity.

Even if there was a utopia where people didn't have to work, sadly I don't think people will pursue enlightening activities. The general public seeks base pleasure such as watching drivel like Jersey Shore and caring about celebrity babies (this just in yet another baby out of billions was born! Lol I think it is more impressive when people can do a yoyo trick as at least that requires some talent and isn't as common) Maybe my view has been changed due to my love of dystopias.

Re: The future of VN's

Posted: Fri Mar 23, 2012 4:29 pm
by Beoran
Well ,yes, the first distopia you mention will almost certainly happen as a phase of a few decades to a few hundred years before it is resolved. What will end it though is the march of technology: once androids become cheap enough to produce, everyone will have them, and in the end, the base of the economy will be fundamentally changed, since now everyone can have everything produced for the mere cost of the materials and energy, which will also become very low, since the androids mine and exploit them too. Also think of 3D printers, like reprap, etc. And the androids won' mind being second class citizens because that's what they'll be programmed to enjoy being. Apart from the occasional maverick.

As for the second distopia you mention... that will be a utopia for most people. Not for most people here who like to live a life of deep feelings and thoughts, but for the majority it will be great. Now, I really feel like i have get on with that video game I want to program about this issue. :p

Re: The future of VN's

Posted: Fri Mar 23, 2012 7:20 pm
by ziamatt
micechasekittens wrote: Like most products it will first have military use followed by entertainment usage. I see corporations selling them for quite a lot. Being a cynic i am, the androids would mainly serve lust purposes and grunt work. Even if they take over most jobs, it won't be a utopia as the disenfranchised would suffer harsh conditions to compete in a job market with robots. Riots that would be harshly shut down by the police would become common as unemployment skyrocketed. If they come sentient along the line they will be viewed as below second class citizens. They will be claimed as property and their future would rest on a court hearing, ala Data in Star Trek Next Gen where Picard has to make the case for Data's humanity.

Even if there was a utopia where people didn't have to work, sadly I don't think people will pursue enlightening activities. The general public seeks base pleasure such as watching drivel like Jersey Shore and caring about celebrity babies (this just in yet another baby out of billions was born! Lol I think it is more impressive when people can do a yoyo trick as at least that requires some talent and isn't as common) Maybe my view has been changed due to my love of dystopias.
Even if unemployment does increase at first, the living conditions of all citizens will be improved as technology progresses. Eventually androids and, especially, nanomachines would take over control of all manufacturing, from the extraction of raw resources to the fabrication of new items, to delivering them to those demanding them. The true cost of manufacturing would be drastically reduced as machines take over our jobs, meaning even those with wealth wouldn't possess indiscriminate power because everything can be produced cheaply enough that their wealth would become irrelevant.

I don't think we have to worry about a conflict between humans and AI because humans will also become heavily augmented with technology, from nanomachines to living our lives in a Matrix-style reality (minus the dystopia). Within time AI and machines wouldn't be second-class citizens because they wouldn't be a distinct class owned by humans, but instead entities willfully and independently serving humanity without being subject to them, while at the same time becoming less and less distinguishable from humanity, especially as humans convert to androids or upload their minds. At that point it's in the machines best interest to serve humanity, since humanity and androids/AI/whatever would be just exactly the same.

Re: The future of VN's

Posted: Mon Mar 26, 2012 6:35 pm
by Silentcook
Back to the future of VNs, please.

Re: The future of VN's

Posted: Tue Mar 27, 2012 9:58 am
by Megumeru
If VNs become real...huh, where did I heard that concept before? Oh yeah...

1. some random email appeared in your mailbox
2. you are asked to fill in the survey of 'the title of the game' and 'who the heroine you want to appear'
3. your computer blew up
4. VN character became a reality
5. Hilarity ensues

GYARUGE NO SEKAI YO, YOUKOSO!

Re: The future of VN's

Posted: Tue Mar 27, 2012 5:35 pm
by danyo
Even though it really looks interesting, I'm really worried about the future of vn's, if you do some research, highly anticipated vn's keep selling less and less. Wich is a problem for several reasons, first off all the obvious: going bankrupt, but secondly, it'll also prevent the companies to try and cater to western world.

Since playing ks, I've played several vn's, and I ended up buying them after playing them ( You get the idea, main reason why I played first is because I needed to know if the fan translations worked properly ). And I can tell you Vn's are pretty costly in itself sadly enough, even though they seem to be a perfect product for digital download, a lot of them don't have that option wich is a major part in the pricing I'd guess.

Re: The future of VN's

Posted: Tue Mar 27, 2012 6:04 pm
by encrypted12345
danyo wrote:Even though it really looks interesting, I'm really worried about the future of vn's, if you do some research, highly anticipated vn's keep selling less and less. Wich is a problem for several reasons, first off all the obvious: going bankrupt, but secondly, it'll also prevent the companies to try and cater to western world.

Since playing ks, I've played several vn's, and I ended up buying them after playing them ( You get the idea, main reason why I played first is because I needed to know if the fan translations worked properly ). And I can tell you Vn's are pretty costly in itself sadly enough, even though they seem to be a perfect product for digital download, a lot of them don't have that option wich is a major part in the pricing I'd guess.
Actually, recent VNs tend to have download versions though fan translations cover old VNs which don't have a download version. There's also the fact that many download versions aren't downloadable in the West because some VN companies only want to sell to Japan. At least all the English publishers are smart enough to include a download option for their releases.

A lot of things in Japan in general are expensive due to high cost of living, so I wouldn't be surprised if 130 dollars is the average price of a PC game. The real problem is that the VN medium is getting a bit stale even though it's a pretty new medium. There are only so many generic school life VNs, angsty melodramatic VNs, medieval fantasy VNs, or storyless porn games you can throw at people before they start getting tired of them.

I guess they just need to innovate more.

Re: The future of VN's

Posted: Wed Mar 28, 2012 5:51 am
by gekiganwing
In the GRIMDARK future of visual novels, there is only war...
danyo wrote:Since playing ks, I've played several vn's, and I ended up buying them after playing them ( You get the idea, main reason why I played first is because I needed to know if the fan translations worked properly ). And I can tell you Vn's are pretty costly in itself sadly enough, even though they seem to be a perfect product for digital download, a lot of them don't have that option wich is a major part in the pricing I'd guess.
Indie game creators who are active in the western visual novel scene will sell you their games through paid downloads. This includes groups such as Hanako Games, Winter Wolves, and Zeiva Inc. Just about everything that they currently sell is US $20 or less.

Likewise, there are a number of Japanese groups who sell their games on DLSite. As of this writing, you can use that site to purchase a full English version of Hatoful Boyfriend, and a mostly-complete English version of Koenchu! It's also a useful site for purchasing indie visual novels such as Supplement Time's stories about Vocaloid characters, though you'll have to apply the fan translation patches yourself.
encrypted12345 wrote:The real problem is that the VN medium is getting a bit stale even though it's a pretty new medium. There are only so many generic school life VNs, angsty melodramatic VNs, medieval fantasy VNs, or storyless porn games you can throw at people before they start getting tired of them. I guess they just need to innovate more.
I'm not sure how large or insular the fandom is. But there are two sales charts which have some interesting data. Consider the overall best-selling BxG games as of late 2008. Lots of '90s games, and a lot of the top-sellers feature complex gameplay. Also, consider the top-selling GxB games of 2010. Notice how Tokimemo Girls Side 3 towers over all the others.

According to an article from 2005, back in the late '90s, visual novels such as To Heart and Kanon were innovative. They were part of a shift away from '90s computer games with had an emphasis on porn along with some gameplay. They started an era of "emotional moe with porn" and sometimes "plot with porn." Over the last few years, have there been any positive or notable trends? There have been a couple worksafe franchises such as Idolmaster and LovePlus. But where do we go from here?

Innovation is always a good concept, but it doesn't always sell. It's usually easier to crank out sequels, spinoffs, and imitations. That's true in just about any media form. Just thinking about video games, I can name quite a few examples of unusual/clever games that barely sold any copies, and I can name quite a few blatant knockoffs and endless franchises that keep making money.

So yeah... if you want a better future for visual novels, do the following:

* Support indie games. Buy and help fund the ones you like.
* Support localization companies. Make sure to purchase their games/VNs in the first two weeks after they are released.
* Support fans who translate content into your native language.
* Practice using game-making software, and create your own freeware games and stories. Consider writing content which falls outside harem genres.