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Re: Act I with random choices - Probabilities
Posted: Mon Jan 12, 2015 6:48 pm
by Atario
In fact, let's go one step further and multiply my results by Notguest's and see what we get.
Code: Select all
Name Route Bad Neutral Good Route Bad Neutral Good
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Kenji 1243/2304 1243/2304 53.9497% 53.9497%
Emi 715/3072 715/8192 3575/24576 23.2747% 8.7280% 14.5467%
Rin 235/1536 1175/18432 1645/36864 1645/36864 15.2995% 6.3748% 4.4623% 4.4623%
Shizune 371/9216 371/18432 371/18432 4.0256% 2.0128% 2.0128%
Hanako 53/3072 53/6144 53/12288 53/12288 1.7253% 0.8626% 0.4313% 0.4313%
Lilly 53/3072 371/24576 53/24576 1.7253% 1.5096% 0.2157%
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Total 1/1 47/64 451/9216 1997/9216 100.0000% 73.4375% 4.8937% 21.6688%
Fractions on the left, rounded percentages on the right. As you can see, your assessment is correct! Also, congratulations to the Lilly-good-enders for using reason to thread a needle random chance would have a hell of a time with.
Re: Act I with random choices - Probabilities
Posted: Mon Jan 12, 2015 7:03 pm
by Charmant
So Kenji's picnic is the easiest thing to get? This thread does make me feel less lousy for having gotten mostly bad ends first...
Re: Act I with random choices - Probabilities
Posted: Mon Jan 12, 2015 8:05 pm
by Mirage_GSM
Emi:
37.5% (3/8) bad
62.5% (5/8) good
…based on listening to advice or not, two or three times between three possible choice points.
I'm not sure if the way you arrived at these numbers is correct, but the numbers themselves seem to be - if the flowchart of Geekahedron is correct. I'm not quite sure if the choice with nurse really has no effect...
If not you have a 25% chance to get the Good End by answering correctly to Mutou and Meiko and another 37,5% (75%/2) chance to get there by answering correctly to Misha after you failed either of the previous choices.
Re: Act I with random choices - Probabilities
Posted: Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:10 pm
by Atario
Mirage_GSM wrote:I'm not quite sure if the choice with nurse really has no effect...
Sure reads like it should, doesn't it? But the seekrit runes seem to say no…
Re: Act I with random choices - Probabilities
Posted: Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:39 pm
by brythain
Atario wrote:Mirage_GSM wrote:I'm not quite sure if the choice with nurse really has no effect...
Sure reads like it should, doesn't it? But the seekrit runes seem to say no…
The one choice is whether you're going to look after your own health or not, at 'Waylay'. If you do, you allow yourself the Emi option, if you reply 'Maybe', you don't. I think.
Re: Act I with random choices - Probabilities
Posted: Tue Jan 13, 2015 12:25 am
by Atario
brythain wrote:Atario wrote:Mirage_GSM wrote:I'm not quite sure if the choice with nurse really has no effect...
Sure reads like it should, doesn't it? But the seekrit runes seem to say no…
The one choice is whether you're going to look after your own health or not, at 'Waylay'. If you do, you allow yourself the Emi option, if you reply 'Maybe', you don't. I think.
No, I think he meant the one in "Debate Expresses Doubt". "Waylay" is back in Act 1.
Re: Act I with random choices - Probabilities
Posted: Tue Jan 13, 2015 12:50 am
by Notguest
I had to double check those Emi numbers since it sounded wrong. It turns out that your numbers are right, but I think your description of the choices is inaccurate.
The 1st, 2nd, and 4th choices don't matter at all. In particular, getting advice from the Nurse doesn't matter. In the only choices that matter are getting advice from Mutou, pursuing Emi in the house, and letting Misha know.
Talk to Mutuo ->
choice in Emi's house
pursue Emi -> scene with Misha -> 50% good, 50% bad
stay with Mother -> 100% good
Don't talk to Mutuo -> scene with Misha -> 50% good, 50% bad
So overall, it is 5/8 good, 3/8 bad.
Edit: And of course someone already said all this and I didn't notice before going off and checking myself.
Re: Act I with random choices - Probabilities
Posted: Tue Jan 13, 2015 7:30 pm
by Atario
Notguest wrote:I think your description of the choices is inaccurate.
How so?
Re: Act I with random choices - Probabilities
Posted: Wed Jan 14, 2015 1:46 pm
by SpunkySix
Then again, once you factor in that some players have good taste, the chances of ending up with Emi are basically 100%.
Re: Act I with random choices - Probabilities
Posted: Thu Jan 15, 2015 2:23 am
by Notguest
Atario wrote:Notguest wrote:I think your description of the choices is inaccurate.
How so?
I already explained it in the post you quoted. But specifically, whether you get advice from the Nurse doesn't matter at all, and the decision to stay with Emi's Mom could only loosely be considered getting advice.
Re: Act I with random choices - Probabilities
Posted: Thu Jan 15, 2015 2:35 am
by SpunkySix
Notguest wrote:Atario wrote:Notguest wrote:I think your description of the choices is inaccurate.
How so?
I already explained it in the post you quoted. But specifically, whether you get advice from the Nurse doesn't matter at all, and the decision to stay with Emi's Mom could only loosely be considered getting advice.
Numerically maybe not, but their words certainly helped give me an idea of how I would respond to Emi's behavior. Nurse especially helps, since his talk comes before the big choice.
Re: Act I with random choices - Probabilities
Posted: Thu Jan 15, 2015 4:54 am
by Mirage_GSM
Notguest wrote:Atario wrote:Notguest wrote:I think your description of the choices is inaccurate.
How so?
I already explained it in the post you quoted. But specifically, whether you get advice from the Nurse doesn't matter at all, and the decision to stay with Emi's Mom could only loosely be considered getting advice.
I'd rather say because not all three choices (Mutou, Meiko and Misha) are equal, i.e if you answer Misha correctly you'll get the good end regardless of what you did before and if you answer Mutou incorrectly, you won't even get to choose with Meiko.
Re: Act I with random choices - Probabilities
Posted: Fri Jan 16, 2015 12:39 am
by Notguest
There's also that.
Re: Act I with random choices - Probabilities
Posted: Fri Jan 16, 2015 12:45 am
by Atario
Notguest wrote:the decision to stay with Emi's Mom could only loosely be considered getting advice.
I would definitely consider it that way. Between running after Emi and staying to talk to Meiko, who just saw everything happen, that's pretty much what's going down.